If you believe in the crypto cycle, last year was the crypto winter . Which means that 2023 will be the start of an uptrend, a crypto Spring if you will. It felt as the year turned so did the optimism from the crypto world.
From Bitcoin's double bottom of $15,500 in December ’22, we raised slightly to about $16,500 as the clock counted down to midnight on New Years Eve. From there point optimism grew and price action began to climb. We broke through our first resistance point of $18,000 within two weeks and shortly after we reached our second resistance of $21,000. Offering investors 30% return year to date.
Speculation carried on growing to whether we had truly left the crypto Winter and if we were at the start of a bull run. We didn't have to wait long to find out, over the course of the next month price action continued to grow all the way to $25,000. Leaving us 51% up from the start of the year.
However, such a meteoric rise was not due to news of the XRP/Ripple case, or any institutional uptake from Wall Street. So, without any bullish news price action began to slow, and as the old saying goes, buy the gossip, sell the news. Or no news in this case.
With price action booming in January and speculation that we were at the start of a bull run, the hype was real. However, what comes up, must go down and price action started slowing, the evidence was obvious we were going to have a pullback. That pullback came in March as we fell to about $20,000. Nevertheless, the hype was real amongst retail investors who were obviously sick of the crypto Winter and were ready for a bull run, so they kept buying. Bitcoin shot up from $20,000 all the way to $28,500 by the end of the first quarter, up 72% from year to date. A staggering push compared to the previous three months or Q4 2022.
Nonetheless, the evidence was fairly clear that looking back over the previous three months of Q1 2023, we are coming out of the crypto Winter and entering the crypto Spring and if price action continues at this rate then we could be looking at 100% gains by the end of Q2 and possibly up to $40,000 by Q3.
Looking around the markets everything has highly benefited from bitcoins meteoric rise from the beginning of the year. Altcoins are up 50% or more and the cycle seems to be happening once again. This means that the second cycle wasn't a coincidence and that we are heading into our third complete four-year cycle with Bitcoin. From this we can deduce that 2023 will be a year to buy Bitcoin as along as we keep posting higher lows on the pullbacks, we have hit the bottom and we are going to rise over the course of this year.
My prediction at the end of 2022 was that we would rise to approximately $30,000 before pulling back down to $25,000 in Q2, then rising to approximately $45,000 by the end of the year. Looking at this prediction now in March 2023, this is looking like it's a reasonable guesstimate. It is completely possible that we might get up to $50,000 by Q4 and if we don't have a huge pullback, we might be looking at just below all-time highs before the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. But that all depends on the news during the year.
No one saw this coming as we assumed it would take the expected institutional investment from Wall Street and the court's decision about XRP/Ripple to start seeing considerable movement to the upside. However, if we receive the predicted institutional investment into cryptocurrency and XRP wins their case, we could easily see all time highs before the halving event.
This would mean that the prediction most commentators had, that we would see $100,000 Bitcoin by the end of this cycle is very, very low. It is completely possible that we could see a $250,000 Bitcoin by 2025, a year after the halving event of April 2024 and when the parabolic action happens. This would be a 1500% increase from the bottom of the cycle. For context, the previous cycle’s bottom to top increase was 2150%. So the downward trend of bottom to top percentages shrinking would fit this prediction as well.
Before getting carried away, it is important to wait and see what the next 2 quarters will bring. With no news from Wall Street or the courts, we may well stagnate for the coming 3 months. Like any investment, it is important to stay across all platforms to gain as much knowledge as possible to make the best decision for you.
Disclaimer - None of what is written on this website is financial advice and only descriptions of how the author trades and for entertainment purposes.
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